The dawn of Europe's economic revival, the new crisis difficult to resolve
Looking at the fundamentals of the economy, it can be said that Europe has been rid of the plight of the 2008 international financial crisis and the European debt crisis in 2010. Last year, the real GDP growth rate in the euro area reached 2.3%, and achieved steady growth for four consecutive years. Even more noteworthy, during this year, all Member States of the European Union continued to grow, the first time since the outbreak of the international financial crisis. In the first quarter of this year, the actual GDP growth rates in Germany and France were 2.3% and 2.2% respectively, and the growth rates of Portugal and Greece were 2.1% and 2.3%, respectively.
Looking at the fiscal burden index, the overall fiscal deficit in the euro area has further improved. By the end of the first quarter, the eurozone deficit was 0.55 percentage points down to 0.71% of GDP from the same period last year, and the situation has changed considerably compared with the fiscal deficit of 5.6% in the first quarter of 2011. In fact, in the EU countries, except for Spain and Portugal, other countries have controlled deficits below 3% after a long period of stringent fiscal tightening. By the end of last year, 11 member countries in the EU have achieved fiscal surplus. For the euro area, Germany's fiscal surplus has accounted for 1.3% of GDP, and Greece, which has a deep debt crisis, has achieved fiscal surplus for two consecutive years, accounting for GDP0.8%.
On the whole, monetary and fiscal policies in the euro area have basically achieved results. In June, the inflation index (HCPI) rose from 1.9% in May to 2%, reaching the target level of the European Central Bank. The situation of the risk of deflation is basically over. Among them, the German HCPI has stood for more than 2% months in two consecutive months, and France HCPI has been 2.3% for two consecutive months. By the end of 5, the unemployment rate of the 28 European Union countries was 7%, the lowest level since August 2008. The unemployment rate in the euro zone also dropped from 12.1% to 8.4% in 2008. Among them, the unemployment rate of young people under 25 dropped by 7.9 percentage points to 16.8%.
In the overall economic situation, the ECB decided in June that if the data confirmed the central bank's mid-term inflation outlook, the monthly net asset purchase rate would fall to 15 billion euros, until the end of December, and the net purchase would end. Eurogroup chairman Mario Centeno announced that the euro zone finance ministers agreed that Greece would withdraw from the crisis relief plan after the third round of the rescue plan expires next month. This means that after Ireland, Spain, Cyprus and Portugal, Greece has become the fifth member to withdraw from the rescue plan. Once Greece is out of the rescue plan, the European debt crisis will become a landmark event in which the European debt crisis has ended theoretically.
The optimism of the market, coupled with the expected inflation expectations, has contributed to the recent upward trend of the euro exchange rate. In addition, the term of office of the European Central Bank President Delagi will expire next November, and the discussion of potential candidates will begin. As the helm of the critical euro zone monetary policy in November 2011, Delagi might be more inclined to complete the "quantitative easing", a monetary policy that could be loaded into the eurozone history in his term of office.
However, the European economy still has a series of risks, and economic growth is uncertain. The latest economic climate index shows weak growth. In July, the euro area manufacturing PMI and Markit integrated PMI decreased by 3.2 points and 2 points respectively compared with the same period last year, and the distance from the 50% "prosperity and drought demarcation line" is being shortened. Against this background, the eurozone climate index dropped to 9.3 low in June, compared with a relatively high level of 28.4 in the same period last year. The euro zone consumer confidence index showed a negative level of -0.5 and -0.6 for two consecutive months.
Based on the above factors, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), in the latest report of the world economic outlook this month, reduced the economic growth rate of the euro zone for the present and the next two years on the basis of the early forecast level by 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points, about 2.2% and 1.9%.
There are also internal challenges as well. Although the deficit reduction of euro zone countries is remarkable, the debt burden problem can not be taken lightly. Last year, the average debt level of the European Union rose sharply, rising from 60.8% to 81.6%, and the debt of 14 member countries accounted for over 60% of GDP. The proportion of general government debt in the euro area to GDP is slightly lower than that in the previous year, but it remains at a high level of 86.7%. Among them, the proportion of French and Spanish general government debt to GDP is 97% and 98.3% respectively. The proportion of Italy, Portugal and Greece in general government debt to GDP is 131.8%, 125.7% and 178.6% respectively. In addition, the employment growth of the European labor market mostly comes from part-time employment and temporary employment, which has not been greatly improved in the increase of high quality jobs, and the labor market is still in a difficult situation.

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